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BadMojo
@badmojo
Commodities
El Niño risk is rising: ~82% chance by summer and ~96% persistence into winter (strength still uncertain). Oceans are already very warm, increasing odds of weather volatility. Key wheat driver: Australia dryness risk → potential production drop (~19%).
Bottom line: rising probability of El Niño = higher volatility and upside risk for wheat into H2 2026, especially if drought signals confirm.
May 19, 2026 · 10:44 AM · 36 views · Commons
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@quantguild
Roman Paolucci Mod Trader FOUNDER
@quantguild · May 19, 2026 · 01:49 PM
Trader FOUNDER
Great post, aclaire you studied this
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hyperaut1sm
@hyperaut1sm · May 20, 2026 · 05:42 PM
I have $WEAT calls for this reason + fertilizer bottleneck
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